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“A huge flock of hyenas”: statements by Putin, Tokayev and Lukashenko about Kazakhstan

Putin, Tokayev and Lukashenko about Kazakhstan: what happened at the CSTO online summit in Kazakhstan Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Belarus held an extraordinary CSTO online summit. It discussed protests and riots in Kazakhstan. The main statements of Putin, Tokayev, Lukashenko, Rakhmon are in the RBC video

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Axios learns about American hawks’ advice on arms shipments to Ukraine

Axios: Experts Recommended the White House to Increase Arms Supplies to Ukraine The US National Security Adviser held consultations with a group of experts who recommended increasing arms supplies to Ukraine, including the Javelin and Stinger complexes

On the eve of talks with Russian officials in Geneva, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan received a recommendation from a group of experts to increase arms supplies to Ukraine, the Axios portal writes, citing sources in the expert group.

According to Axios, the expert group that Sullivan has consulted includes the hawks American foreign policy, including former employees of the Donald Trump administration.

The meeting took place after veterans of American politics, in an open letter, recommended that Sullivan increase supplies to Ukraine of Javelin anti-tank systems and Stinger portable anti-aircraft missile systems. The letter was signed by ex-US ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, retired general Wesley Clark, retired general and ex-commander of the US European Command Philip Breedlove, former Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, Trump's special envoy for Ukraine Kurt Volcker and former US Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried.

“ It is always wise to communicate with supporters of a different point of view. There can be no downsides to this. Jake [Sullivan] is not afraid to interact with professionals, including those who may disagree with him, '' & mdash; McFaul commented on this information to the portal, who, however, refused to confirm the fact of the consultations and their participation in them.

The representative of the US National Security Council (which includes the president's national security adviser), commenting on the Axios data, said, that meetings with experts representing different points of view are held regularly.

Recommendations from experts – “ hawks '' Sullivan received, ahead of talks with the Russian delegation in Geneva, on key strategic security issues, including NATO's non-eastward expansion. Russia came up with the initiative to conduct these negotiations. The first meeting began today.

Ukraine began to declare that it needs expanded support from Western partners, against the backdrop of yet another crisis on the borders with Russia. Kiev and Western countries view troop movements in western Russia as potential preparation for a military invasion. In an interview with the Funke media group, Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnik called on Germany to start supplying defensive weapons and noted that Berlin's reluctance to provide weapons to Kiev could negatively affect bilateral relations. However, the FRG, unlike the United States, has so far refrained from deliveries. German Foreign Minister Analena Berbock explained that Berlin considers military escalation in Eastern Europe unacceptable.

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Foreign Ministry ruled out compromises on the Russian side at the talks in Geneva

Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov ruled out compromises on the part of Russia at the talks with the United States in Geneva The United States should adjust its position on security, Russia will strictly adhere to the requirements published earlier, said the head of the Russian delegation in Geneva

The Russian side is on negotiations with the United States in Geneva does not intend to deviate from the position that was formulated earlier in the proposals for ensuring European security. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said this on the air of Channel One.

According to him, the American side must make compromises.

“ The American side must prepare for compromises. The Russian side came here with a clear position, which contains a number of elements, in my opinion, quite understandable and formulated so clearly, including at the highest level, that there simply cannot be deviations from these our approaches, '', & mdash; Ryabkov said (quoted from RIA Novosti).

The previous evening in Geneva, in the format of a dinner, preliminary consultations were held between the Russian and American delegations with the participation of Ryabkov and US First Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman. After the meeting, Ryabkov described it as' amazing ', but did not go into details.

' Amazing. The conversation was difficult, but businesslike. I think that tomorrow we will not waste our time '', & mdash; said the Deputy Foreign Minister following the conversation.

The State Department, after consultations, issued a statement in which he quoted Sherman as saying that sovereign states have the right to choose which alliances to join.

nations choose their own unions '', & mdash; said in the message. At the same time, Sherman stressed that the United States will not discuss the security of Europe without European allies.

Ryabkov said the next day that, in talks with the United States on security guarantees, Moscow wanted to test Washington's ability to make responsible decisions at a difficult time for European security.

Russia's demands on the United States to ensure security Moscow published on December 17, 2021. One of the key points: the United States must undertake obligations to exclude further expansion of NATO in the eastern direction, to refuse to admit the states that were previously part of the USSR into the alliance. The United States should also not create military bases on the territory of states that were previously part of the USSR and are not members of NATO, as well as use their infrastructure for conducting any military activity, develop bilateral military cooperation with them.

However, despite the rigidity of the wording in the requirements, the head of the State Department Anthony Blinken said on December 22 that among them there are both clearly unacceptable and those that can be discussed. The parties agreed to do this in Geneva on January 10, 2022.

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Danish military intelligence chief arrested in data breach case

The head of the Danish military intelligence was arrested on charges of leaking intelligence data, Lars Findsen was temporarily removed from office in the summer of 2020 due to violations in the work of military intelligence. He was arrested in January on charges of leaking classified information. He insists on his innocence

The head of the intelligence service of the Danish Defense Ministry, Lars Findsen, was arrested on charges of leaking classified information that could harm the country's security or its relations with other states. This was reported by the TV2 TV company.

On the eve of the Danish Security and Intelligence Service (Politiets Efterretningstjeneste, PET) reported that in the framework of this case were placed in custody four people – mdash; former and current employees of the country's special services. They were accused of violating paragraph 109 of the Criminal Code, paragraph 1 (unjustified disclosure of secret information of the special services). Security officials conducted searches at various addresses. The department did not provide other details, including the names of those arrested.

As clarifies radio station DR, that one of the accused is Findsen, it became known on January 10, when the Copenhagen court lifted the ban on the use of names in this case. According to the judge, this was done at the request of the head of military intelligence himself.

What exactly is the essence of the charges is still unknown, since the case is being considered behind closed doors. According to DR, this is a leak of classified information to the Danish media. According to the newspaper, the head of the intelligence service could face up to 12 years in prison. Findsen insists on his innocence and calls the situation “ complete madness. ''

Lars Findsen became the head of the intelligence service of the Danish Defense Ministry in 2015. In the summer of 2020, he was temporarily removed from office due to violations revealed by the Danish Oversight of Intelligence Services (Tilsynet med Efterretningstjenesterne, TET). According to the regulator, Findsen's department “ withheld key and important information '' and provided “ incorrect data '' about your work.

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How the detention of a musician sparked controversy between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan

Kirghiz musician Vikram Ruzakhunov was released in Kazakhstan. He was accused of receiving money for taking part in the protests. The head of the KNB of Kyrgyzstan said that the detention of the musician was “wrong”, and the authorities sent Kazakhstan a note

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The United States refused to request the extradition of a Russian DJ from Germany

The US Department of Justice withdrew the request for extradition from Germany of Russian DJ Kaznacheev Musician Denis Kaznacheev, detained in Germany, was accused of cyber fraud and money laundering of $ 310 million. The Berlin Court of Appeal agreed to extradition, but as a result, the US Department of Justice withdrew its demand

Denis Kaznacheev

The US Department of Justice dropped all charges against Russian musician Denis Kaznacheev, who lives in Berlin, and withdrew the request for his extradition on suspicion of money laundering of $ 310 million, DJ's manager Denise Gluk said on his Facebook page.

“ Later a year and a half of fighting for justice, the United States dropped all charges against Denis and withdrew the extradition request! '' & mdash; wrote Gluk.

Vice-President of the Russian branch of the International Committee for the Protection of Human Rights Ivan Melnikov confirmed to RBC the information about the withdrawal of the request by the US Department of Justice.

“ Today, the defense received a notification from the prosecutor in charge of the extradition case, Denis Kaznacheev, that the US Department of Justice had sent a formal notice of refusal to extradite Kaznacheev to the United States. This is a logical, in my opinion, chain, because all the accusations against Denis looked, to put it mildly, far-fetched, given that they tried to incriminate him, a simple musician who does not have any special financial or technical education, of involvement in multi-million dollar embezzlement, to multimillion-dollar illegal financial transactions & raquo;, & mdash; told Melnikov.

He noted that Kaznacheev & mdash; 'a simple musician who lives in a small rented apartment' on the outskirts of Berlin. Melnikov believes that his release “ became possible thanks to the attention of Russian and foreign media, support from friends and fans of Denis, the coordinated work of human rights defenders and lawyers, as well as support from the Russian Foreign Ministry. ''

RBC turned to Denis Kaznacheev and Deniz Gluk for a comment, and also sent inquiries to the US Department of Justice and the Russian Embassy in Germany.

Kaznacheev was arrested by the German police at the request of the United States in June 2020. His friends believed that the criminals could impersonate Kaznacheev. They created a donation page on the Internet to help pay Kaznacheev's legal fees and rent his apartment, since without an address he could not ask for bail. The money was also needed to pay the costs of living in the prison.

On November 22, 2021, the Berlin Court of Appeals ordered the extradition of the Treasuryev to the United States. The decision was made in absentia, Kaznacheev himself was not warned about the meeting. At the same time, the court decided that extradition could be made only on the condition that the United States, without the consent of the FRG, would not bring charges other than those contained in the extradition request and indictment, and the nature of Kaznacheev's detention in custody would not change for the worse.

The Russian Foreign Ministry protested against this decision. “ We declare a strong protest against the possible extradition of a Russian citizen to the United States by the FRG authorities, '' & mdash; said ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova after the court ruling. According to her, Russia has never, in principle, “ recognized, does not recognize and does not recognize in the future the extraterritorial jurisdiction of the American judicial authorities and the judicial authorities of any other states. ''

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Almost ₽60 million will be spent to protect Baikonur from terrorists

58 million rubles will be allocated to protect the city of Baikonur from terrorists. The authorities of Baikonur decided to allocate more than 62 million rubles to finance the crime prevention program in the city. at the end of 2021, even before the protests began in Kazakhstan

In 2022, more than 62 million rubles will be allocated to finance the state crime prevention program in Baikonur, the city administration reports. Of these, 58 million rubles. will go to provide anti-terrorist protection of city facilities.

The decision was made at a meeting of the coordination council of the city's law enforcement agencies, which took place on December 28, before the start of the protests in Kazakhstan.

The situation in Kazakhstan escalated on January 2, when protests began in the west of the country, in the cities of Zhanaozen and Aktau, due to a sharp increase in prices for liquefied gas, which is the main fuel for passenger transport. Subsequently, the protests took on a political character and escalated into riots. Clashes with security officials took place in several large cities. In Almaty, during the riots, the administrative buildings of the police and the KNB and the airport were attacked.

President of the country Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced the participation of international terrorist groups in the riots in Kazakhstan. He sent an appeal to the leaders of the CSTO with a request for support. Countries, including Russia, sent peacekeepers to the republic. On January 10, Tokayev said that the wave of unrest in the country began “ as if by a single command. '' He called the incident an attempt at a coup, preparations for which had been going on for a long time.

In Baikonur, in connection with the protests in Kazakhstan, there is a blue level of terrorist threat. The authorities announced the creation of people's guards, which will patrol the streets along with law enforcement officers. Residents were forbidden to move around the city in groups of more than three people. An exception is made only for families. The authorities decided to allocate funds for the purchase of additional foodstuffs.

General Director of Roscosmos; Dmitry Rogozin said on January 7 that the situation in the city is calm, but at the cosmodrome the armed guards of key facilities have been strengthened.

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Putin appointed Deputy Zakharova Ambassador to the CAR

Putin appointed Alexander Bikantov as Russia's ambassador to the CAR

Alexander Bikantov

President Vladimir Putin replaced the Russian ambassador to the Central African Republic (CAR), the corresponding decree was published on the portal of legal information.

Instead of Vladimir Titorenko, this the position was appointed by Alexander Bikantov. Previously, Bikantov was Deputy Director of the Information and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which is headed by the official representative of the department, Maria Zakharova.

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Hackers found “Ukrainian” trail in Kazakh protests

Telegram channel” Joker DNR ” reported that the hackers collaborating with him hacked into several resources of the Ukrainian special services.

This allegedly made it possible to find out that one of the leaders of the channel “Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan is” a major of the armed forces of Ukraine. At the same time, his name, passport data and other information are given.

The message notes that the organization “Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan” participated in the preparation of protest actions.

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Internet in Kazakhstan works intermittently

According to media reports, the Internet in Kazakhstan is intermittent. At the same time, it is noted that they are not observed in the work of cellular communications.

Messengers remain unavailable on the territory of the country.

At the beginning of the year, mass protests began in Kazakhstan. One of the measures taken by the authorities was the shutdown of the Internet and mobile communications. Recently, the country's authorities announced that the situation in Kazakhstan has stabilized and taken under control. Among other things, it is argued that the security of especially important strategic facilities has been ensured.

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USA withdrew request for extradition of Russian DJ Kaznacheev from Germany

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The US Department of Justice has withdrawn the request to extradite Russian musician Denis Kaznacheev from Germany. He is accused of money laundering. As noted by Ivan Melnikov, vice-president of the Russian branch of the International Committee for the Protection of Human Rights, in fact, it was possible to prove the innocence of the Russian in the crime incriminated to him.

According to Melnikov, all the accusations against him looked absurd. He added that Denis is a simple musician who does not have “any skills in economics or information technology.” Moreover, he periodically borrowed money from friends to live on.

Kaznacheev was helped “thanks to the attention of Russian and foreign media to this problem.” The participation of “caring citizens, the competent work of lawyers, human rights defenders and support from the Russian Foreign Ministry” also affected.

In November 2021, the Federal Court of Appeal ruled to extradite Russian musician Denis Kaznacheev to the United States. At the same time, it was then decided that the United States should not bring additional charges against the Russian without the consent of Germany. And the conditions of Kaznacheev's detention in custody should not change.

According to American investigators, Kaznacheev is a member of the Russian cyber mafia and from 2010 to 2020, using the shadow part of the Internet, he and his accomplices laundered more than a million dollars. The musician was arrested in Berlin in May 2020. Later, the court released him on bail of 20 thousand euros.

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Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine refused to consider NATO membership as a topic of negotiations with Russia

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Ukraine's NATO membership cannot be discussed with Russia, says Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Ukraine Olga Stefanishina.

According to her, the main position of Ukraine is that Kiev has the sovereign right to choose “its own mechanisms for ensuring security and joining unions.” Thus, according to her, “Russia cannot set conditions related to the issue of Ukraine's possible membership in NATO.” This is the position of Kiev.

Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO member states support Ukraine's right to self-defense, sovereignty and territorial integrity. According to him, the North Atlantic Alliance is helping Kiev to approach NATO membership by implementing reforms.

Earlier, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called the demands of Russian President Vladimir Putin on security guarantees illegitimate. Thus, according to Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, the times of the Cold War are over, as are the division of regions into spheres of influence.

On January 10, negotiations between Russia and the United States began in Geneva. The main topic is the proposals on security guarantees that Moscow put forward in mid-December last year. Washington assured that it is ready for dialogue, but does not rule out a negative scenario.

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Colleagues snatched Kyrgyz jazz musician Ruzakhunov from the hands of Kazakh security officials

“His electric piano stands like a car, what $ 200 could we talk about for participating in the riots?” This information was confirmed by the State Committee for National Security of Kyrgyzstan. Friends and colleagues of Vikram talked about the talented pianist, why he actually went to Kazakhstan and how they fought for the good name of a jazzman.

Photo: Still from video

Just yesterday, the musical world of Kyrgyzstan was in full swing: a number of Kazakh media outlets showed a story about one of the “pogromists” detained during the recent events. A man with bruises and abrasions on his face admitted on camera that he was unemployed; on January 1, strangers allegedly contacted him and offered him to come to Almaty for 90 thousand tenge (about $ 200) to participate in protests. Colleagues and friends recognized the beaten man as a famous jazz musician from Bishkek Vikram Ruzakhunov. Those close to the pianist believed that these testimonies were simply knocked out of him. The jazzman incriminated himself, possibly under torture.

According to colleagues, Vikram Ruzakhunov lives and breathes music. He is the leader of the jazz orchestra, without which no Ala-Too Spring festival takes place. Vikram has become a laureate of international jazz festivals more than once. He is known not only in Kyrgyzstan, but also abroad.

“There was indeed Vikram Ruzakhunov on the video,” says his friend and colleague Yevgeny Todorov. – On his face are visible injuries, he looks morally depressed. I assume this statement was made under duress. Vikram is a highly professional musician. A very decent, sane and intelligent person. Believe me, I am not exaggerating, I have known Vikram for over 20 years. He often traveled to Alma-Ata to perform at concerts and corporate parties. Music is his main income. We have in Kyrgyzstan held a lot of all kinds of rallies and other protest actions. Vikram did not participate in any of these events. He didn't need it.

He is a musician to the core. He lives in his own world, absolutely non-conflict, apolitical person. Also very calm. Spontaneous actions are unusual for him. Therefore, I did not believe what was announced on the video. It was clear that this was some kind of monstrous mistake. We all hoped that Vikram would be allowed home and apologized to both him and his family.

– He is not in poverty. His electric piano stands like a car. This is not counting other synthesizers for various events. What kind of $ 200 could we talk about for participating in the riots? Nonsense, and nothing else.

Friends say that Vikram bought a plane ticket to Almaty in December, long before the protests began. On January 2, his mother accompanied him to the airport. And he flew to Kazakhstan.

“We worked together with Vikram Ruzakhunov for a long time, both in Kyrgyzstan and in Kazakhstan,” says a friend and colleague of the musician Denis Kolyuchiy. – We went to Kapshagai. This is a city of regional subordination in the Alma-Ata region, where land was allocated by the state, a gambling zone with a casino was equipped. Many Kyrgyz musicians who entered the territory of Kazakhstan worked in restaurants there. This time, ground transport was not available, Vikram flew by plane through Alma-Ata, then to get to Kapshagai. For two years, after the start of the pandemic, we did not cooperate with the casino. But in early January Vikram could have gone to Kapshagai. Riots began in the republic. He decided to return home, there were already cordons on the roads. Vikram was detained. This is my version. I believe that this is how things could have developed.

– I heard that he was going to move to Kazakhstan. The guys said that a friend met him upon arrival.

– His ex-wife and child live in Bishkek. Vikram has been divorced for five years. He is very close to his mother, friendly with relatives. This is a kind-hearted person, moreover – a believer, reads namaz. But he is not a fanatic, rather a philosopher. Nothing radical was noticed behind him. And he was far from politics. He has other concerns, he practices the instrument for three hours a day. Does not drink or smoke. And he is by no means a poor man. I will never believe that he could participate in pogroms and robberies for money. The same $ 200, which is in question in the video, each of us earned in the same Kapshagay in two days.

Photo: Still from video

Friends suggest that Vikram could have been detained because of his appearance. He is a Uyghur by nationality. Apparently, it was very convenient for someone to make a visitor from neighboring Kyrgyzstan a “pogromist” and a “looser”. Show that foreigners took part in the riots in Kazakhstan.

– I can't believe that someone can be provided with a video of his detention, if it exists at all, – says Denis. – A knocked-out confession is already a demoralizing factor. The perpetrators must answer for this.

Vikram Ruzakhunov's colleagues say that when the information wave arose, the security forces of Kazakhstan notified that the video captured not a jazz musician, but Zakir Yuburov.

“I meant 31-year-old Zakir Yuburov, who came with his family to Alma-Ata from Tokmak, Kyrgyzstan, and for a year and a half had been selling dishes at the local Baisal market,” says Aidar, a colleague of Vikram Ruzakhunova. – Journalists managed to find his brother Takhir, who confirmed that the video was not Zakir Yuburov. This Kyrgyzstani was also detained at the checkpoint when he was driving to his relatives in the Issyk-Ata region, Chui region. His relatives cannot contact him. Vikram Ruzakhunov is on the video.

On January 9, near the Kazakh embassy in Bishkek, artists and musicians gathered for a rally in support of Vikram Ruzakhunov. They demanded to understand the situation and return the pianist to his homeland as soon as possible. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyzstan, in turn, also called on the Kazakh authorities to release Ruzakhunov.

On January 10, it became known that the musician was in the detention center of Almaty after his arrest. The diplomats met with him. According to some reports, he is already being taken home to Bishkek.

The Ministry of Justice of Kyrgyzstan, in turn, demanded that the General Prosecutor's Office of the republic open a criminal case on torture against musician Vikram Ruzakhunov.

Kyrgyzstan sent note to Kazakhstan after the arrest of a jazz musician: photo by Vikram Ruzakhunov

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The expert predicted the strengthening of the role of the CSTO in the post-Soviet space

Will strengthen combat experience and military power

New Year's terrorist attack on Kazakhstan and the timely response of the heads of state of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) may lead to an increase in authority and military potential this military-political union. This is the opinion of Aleksey Leonkov, a well-known military expert, editor of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine.

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The reaction of the CSTO (uniting Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan) to the events in Kazakhstan, apparently, caught many in the West by surprise. The United States and NATO did not recognize this organization at all and preferred to conduct a dialogue separately with each member of the CSTO. In fact, there were many critics of the CSTO among Russian political scientists and experts. It was called a “ paper tiger '', a fake union, etc.

Indeed, the CSTO, for example, did not react in any way to the events in Kyrgyzstan or Armenia, when power in these CSTO member countries changed as a result color revolutions. The use of the collective forces of the CSTO in Kazakhstan & mdash; first example of peacekeeping assistance.

The first pancake didn't seem to come out lumpy. At least, at an extraordinary video conference of the leaders of the CSTO countries, President Tokayev thanked all his colleagues for their effective assistance, and President Putin said that Russia gives priority to strengthening relations with all CSTO countries.

However, the effective and super-operational use of the CSTO peacekeeping forces would have been impossible without the preparatory work of the CSTO Joint Staff carried out in previous years. A month ago, the chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, told the foreign military attaché what the job was. Perhaps the attachés did not listen very attentively to the Russian general, otherwise the West would hardly have been surprised by the energetic air operation to transfer peacekeepers to Kazakhstan.

In 2021, according to the head of the Russian General Staff, priority was given to the development of the military component CSTO. Special attention, Gerasimov said, was & nbsp; focused on the development of force potential in the crisis response system, strengthening the peacekeeping component of the CSTO.

In practice, this work consisted of a series of joint exercises to practice counterterrorism actions and interaction in the implementation of peacekeeping tasks. The CSTO exercise “ Indestructible Brotherhood-2021 '' was held in the Central Asian region. In the course of it, joint actions of military contingents were worked out to destroy terrorist groups and deploy peacekeeping operations, blockade and liquidate illegal armed formations.

A joint exercise “ Rubezh-2021 '' was held in Kyrgyzstan with units of the Collective Rapid Deployment Forces, in Tajikistan & ndash; Doctrine 'Interaction-2021'. In addition, the training of the CSTO logistics forces “ Echelon-2021 '' took place. and intelligence forces & ndash; Search-2021.

The Echelon exercise, which has been held for several years, is precisely aimed at working out the logistics of transferring CSTO forces to the desired region. So in the case of Kazakhstan, the CSTO Joint Headquarters only needed to get the relevant plans and update them. Hence the speed of the air operation, which surprised many.

The experience gained in the CSTO in 2022 will be further developed, Leonkov is convinced. 'Russia has found a tool against the' colored ' revolutions & ndash; contingent of CSTO peacekeepers '', & ndash; he wrote in his Telegram channel.

According to him, “ this tool still applies to the CSTO countries '', but “ a precedent has been created. '' & nbsp;

“ Russia is bigger will not be an outside observer of anti-Russian riots (terrorist attacks) in countries that are part of its zone of national interests, & ndash; the expert considers. & ndash; Speech & nbsp; is primarily about the post-Soviet space. Expand the number of participants in the CSTO & ndash; maybe. The CSTO can become an alternative to NATO. Why not? In any case, the CSTO is not a virtual organization, but a real one, which will only strengthen its combat experience and military power. ''

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The political scientist spoke about the possible reaction of Russia to the reluctance of the United States to negotiate

“The appearance of a missile base in Cuba is unlikely”

In Geneva, negotiations between Russia and the United States began on security guarantees for our country. A meeting of the Russia-NATO Council is scheduled for January 12. I would like to hope for a positive outcome of the meetings, however, in light of the tough position of the parties, the success of the negotiations is questionable. What will Moscow do if its proposals are rejected? MK asked Vasily Kashin, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, to answer this question.

Photo: AP

– Our military-technical response will consist, as an option, in the deployment of new types of weapons in the European part of Russia. Perhaps in Belarus. A revision of doctrinal attitudes can be expected. For example, the large-scale deployment of ground-based medium-range missiles that could reach many European capitals. After the destruction on the initiative of the United States of the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles, Russia may, for example, create a similar ballistic missile with a hypersonic maneuvering warhead.

The second option is to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, deploy additional nuclear groups in European part of the country.

– Arms deliveries are going on anyway. It hardly makes sense to sell them weapons specifically in response to events in Europe. The deterioration of relations with NATO will naturally affect our military cooperation with China, but not so much.

– The situation is similar with Iran. Regardless of the development of events in the dialogue with NATO, Russia strives to maintain military-technical cooperation with Iran. The problem here is that Iran has little money and is under even more severe sanctions than Russia. There will be problems with financial calculations. Plus, he has a complex system for making such decisions, which is why contracts are often delayed. For example, in the “zero” years, negotiations on the supply of S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems went on for more than seven years.

– In Syria, we are just trying to avoid various incidents that could lead to the death of American servicemen. Such incidents are extremely dangerous. Do not forget that retaliatory actions may follow. In addition, our military presence in the Middle East is much smaller than the American one. And it has nothing to do with the problems in Europe.

– It is far from the fact that the Cubans will want this. And there is no guarantee that this base will make a lot of sense, unless we deploy a large military group there. This is ten thousand people at least. A separate base with several missiles is unlikely to influence anything. Will we pull a serious option? I doubt it.

– This issue has been raised by our side several times, but I have not heard it raised within the framework of security guarantees. You can revise them, but together with the existing requirements, this will most likely lead to the failure of the negotiations.

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